Bitcoin 3rd Halving – Stationary Deflation

Before I get to the 3^rd Halving of Bitcoin, I want to go over why this is a new cycle for Bitcoin. In the 2^nd Halving post, I made a very general statement that the Bitcoin Halving events are new cycles similar to Mars a Return cycle. Why I state this? Because of the a recent theory which models Bitcoin using a Stock to Flow model.

The basic Stock to Flow Bitcoin theory, suggest that since Bitcoin has scarcity and a store of value, it’s price can be modeled similar to how gold, silver, and other commodities are modeled evaluating the current stock of an item and how long it take s replenish it.

Take gold for instance. There are 185 kilotons of gold and we mine 3 kilotons every year. Therefore it takes approximately 62 years of production to get the current stock. Sliver is similar with a 22 year replenishment rate. This rate can change over time and is not constant for commodities.

Bitcoin is similar, but fixed production rates determined by the blocks found, and halving event. The relationship to price come in when one plots the price versus the stock-to-flow ratio, there is 95% correlation to the price of Bitcoin. This is a very high correlation suggesting that most of the price in Bitcoin is related to it’s scarcity as measure by a stock-to-flow ratio.

What price would this translate to? According to a follow up article on the theory, the same author refines the model and calculates that Bitcoin to average a price closer to $288,000 per coin. Please note at the time of the this article and block 630,000 the price of Bitcoin was approximately $8,500 dollars. He also upgraded the model and this current one has an even higher correlation of 99.7%. Although most of that is expecting a year long linear lag time as the Bitcoin price slowly increases.

Does this mean that Bitcoin will reach that price? Let’s look at the astrology chart of Bitcoin’s 3^rd Halving to find out. The 3^rd Halving occurred on May11, 2020 at 7:23 PM UTC time. I am gain using the London as the location for the chart to keep consistent with the Bitcoin Genesis chart.

Let’s look at Saturn first. Saturn is in Aquarius and only makes 3 major aspects in this chart. First there is an out of sign trine to Mercury. This aspect show a harmonious union between the concept and technology behind Bitcoin at the moment. It is a primer to mass adaption for commerce. In my first post on Bitcoin I argue on could a case for either Saturn or Mercury as the ruler of Bitcoin. Any harmonious aspect between them should always be a good sign.

Saturn then makes an out of sign conjunction with Jupiter. With Jupiter still in Capricorn I suspect this means a more mainstream adoption of Bitcoin by governments, bankers, and other officialdom rather than a popular medium of exchange for the masses.

The last major aspect with Saturn is a square to Uranus. I suspect this will relate to some expected or surprise shock to Bitcoin, maybe involving regulation of it as a currency. It could also relate to an surprise problem found in the code that requires an hard fork to fix causing much contention in the Bitcoin community.

Saturn also has the most essential dignity in the is chart, being in its domicile, triplicity, and term. Except for Mars, no other planet has essential dignity in this chart. Not only does Saturn has essential dignity, it also stations retrograde today. When ever a planet stations it is more powerful because it is still in the sky.

In a typical natal chart, a stationary Saturn is not that different from a retrograde or direct Saturn, but in mundane chart a station can more significant since Saturn is a social planet, not a personal one. Here the stationary Saturn is like a pause before a new form or structure comes into the world. Since this the station retrograde, this structure is probably related to redoing of Bitcoin’s code, especially with the trine Mercury. Likely there will be some major update to the source code of Bitcoin during this cycle.

One can also think of the stationary retrograde Saturn as a clear signal that governments, business, and especially banks, can not ignore what Bitcoin is any longer. It has a store of value, it functions like currency, it is more transmittable than gold. They will have to acknowledge it’s revolutionary potential and they will have to get involved in using it otherwise they may get left out.

There are a few other aspects worth looking here. First there a square between Mercury and Mars. This likely relates to a major fight over the changes to the Bitcoin program that will occur. It will probably be public too. What ever is decided in the fight, the public will likely accept and follow the leadership team. This is because the an applying Moon Sun trine. The last major aspect is a square between Venus and Neptune. This would indicated a conflict between the idea of consensus and what actually occurs.

Now, lets look at the biwheel chart between this on and Bitcoin’s Genesis chart. There are more connection to it then in the 2^nd Halving chart. Some of the minor ones are that the Halving Venus is trine the Genesis Neptune, the Halving Mars is conjunct the Genesis Venus, the Halving Uranus is trine the Genesis Mars, and the Haling Neptune is conjunct the Genesis Uranus and opposite the Genesis Saturn.

But the key connections are related to the Mercury, Jupiter, and Saturn. The Halving Mercury is trine the Genesis Jupiter. This will show a growth of commerce with Bitcoin during this cycle. This is further supported by Halving Jupiter in a conjunction with Genesis Jupiter is also a sign of growth. This foreshadows Bitcoin first Jupiter Return later in the year and the first maturation of the technology.

But again the Halving Saturn is the key player here. It is conjunct both the Genesis Mercury and Jupiter. The the conjunction to Genesis Jupiter is a pro- growth aspect especially for the business community and for governments. The conjunct to Genesis Jupiter shows that Bitcoin may become more important in commerce during this Halving cycle.

So overall the chart looks favorable for a large price increase in Bitcoin because it looks like there will demand for it with large businesses and governments according to this Halving chart. With a stationary retrograde Saturn it is likely that many in the financial and governmental communities will realize Bitcoin is here to stay and they will have to take notice of it this cycle.

It is not too late for individual to buy, but once the price increases much beyond the $20,000 it will be more difficult for individuals to get in. I think the chart is really showing that Bitcoin will probably evolve into a international settlement mechanism instead of an everyday use currency.

We have have to wait another 4 years for the 4^th Halving to see the future beyond that. In the meantime one can follow the live stock to flow prediction model here https://digitalik.net/btc/.